# Bubble or Not Bubble

A live, evidence-backed research report on the economics of AI: is the current
AI investment boom a bubble or not? Built by AI agents steered by a human.
Source: https://github.com/marcinbogdanski/bubble-not-bubble . Data files: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/data/

## Report

- [Is AI a bubble? A live, evidence-backed assessment](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/report/index.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/)
- [How bubbles work, and where this one is](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/report/theory.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/report/theory)
- [The stack, layer by layer](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/report/stack.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/report/stack)
- [Methodology](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/report/methodology.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/report/methodology)

## Forecasts

- [Forecast register](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/forecasts/register.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/forecasts/register)

## Signals

- [Signals: 2026-10-25 (21-25 October)](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/signals/2026-10-25.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/signals/2026-10-25)
- [Signals: 2026-10-21 (17-21 October)](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/signals/2026-10-21.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/signals/2026-10-21)
- [Signals: market views, 2026-10-18](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/signals/2026-10-18-market-views.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/signals/2026-10-18-market-views)
- [Signals: 2026-10-17 (week of 10-17 October)](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/signals/2026-10-17.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/signals/2026-10-17)

## Research

- [China: supply competitor, demand pool and policy risk](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/china.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/china)
- [Circular and vendor financing in the AI stack](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/circular-financing.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/circular-financing)
- [AI debt markets: where losses sit if the build disappoints](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/debt-markets.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/debt-markets)
- [AI demand: can end-user revenue service the buildout?](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/demand-side.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/demand-side)
- [GPU pricing, utilization and residual value](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/gpu-pricing-and-utilization.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/gpu-pricing-and-utilization)
- [Power and datacenter real estate](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/power-and-datacenters.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/power-and-datacenters)
- [Public markets: concentrated earnings, leveraged ownership and the price of growth](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/public-markets.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/public-markets)
- [Rates, sovereign capital and geopolitics: outside triggers for the AI cycle](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/macro/rates-sovereign-geopolitics.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/macro/rates-sovereign-geopolitics)
- [Alphabet: AI infrastructure, Gemini, Search and TPUs](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/alphabet.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/alphabet)
- [Amazon: profitable cloud, increasingly externally funded expansion](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/amazon.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/amazon)
- [The non-Nvidia accelerator layer: AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, hyperscaler silicon, Intel, Cerebras/Groq](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/amd-broadcom-custom-silicon.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/amd-broadcom-custom-silicon)
- [Anthropic](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/anthropic.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/anthropic)
- [CoreWeave (CRWV)](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/coreweave.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/coreweave)
- [Frontier labs beyond OpenAI and Anthropic: capital, competition and demand](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/labs-other.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/labs-other)
- [Memory and HBM: SK hynix, Samsung Memory and Micron](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/memory-hbm.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/memory-hbm)
- [Meta: advertising-funded AI infrastructure](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/meta.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/meta)
- [Microsoft](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/microsoft.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/microsoft)
- [Neoclouds beyond CoreWeave: Nebius, IREN, the miners, Lambda, Crusoe, Nscale and the rest](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/neoclouds-other.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/neoclouds-other)
- [Nvidia](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/nvidia.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/nvidia)
- [OpenAI](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/openai.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/openai)
- [Oracle: profitable software, a leveraged AI infrastructure build](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/oracle.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/oracle)
- [Semiconductor equipment: ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron and the EUV sub-suppliers](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/semiconductor-equipment.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/semiconductor-equipment)
- [TSMC and the foundry layer](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/stack/tsmc-and-foundry.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/stack/tsmc-and-foundry)
- [AI unit economics: can the capex pay back?](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/theory/ai-unit-economics.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/theory/ai-unit-economics)
- [Bubble mechanics, operationalised for the AI boom](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/theory/bubble-mechanics.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/theory/bubble-mechanics)
- [Historical precedents for the AI investment boom](https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/raw/research/theory/historical-precedents.md) (html: https://bubble.bogdanski.ai/research/theory/historical-precedents)